Comparing COVID-19 pandemic health responses in two high-income island nations: Iceland and New Zealand.

AIMS: We aimed to compare COVID-19 control measures, epidemiological characteristics and economic performance measures in two high-income island nations with small populations, favorable border control options, and relatively good outcomes: Iceland and New Zealand (NZ). METHODS: We examined peer-reviewed journal articles, official websites, reports, media releases and press articles for data on pandemic preparedness and COVID-19 public health responses from 1 January 2020 to 1 June 2022 in Iceland and NZ. We calculated epidemiological characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as measures of economic performance. RESULTS: Both nations had the lowest excess mortality in the OECD from the start of the pandemic up to June 2022. Iceland pursued a mitigation strategy, never used lockdowns or officially closed its border to foreign nationals, and instead relied on extensive testing and contact tracing early in the pandemic. Meanwhile, NZ pursued an elimination strategy, used a strict national lockdown to stop transmission, and closed its international border to everyone except citizens and permanent residents going through quarantine and testing. Iceland experienced a larger decrease in gross domestic product in 2020 (relative to 2019) than NZ (-8·27% vs. -1·22%, respectively). In late 2021, NZ announced a shift to a suppression strategy and in 2022 began to reopen its border in stages, while Iceland ended all public restrictions on 25 February 2022. CONCLUSIONS: Many of Iceland's and NZ's pandemic control measures appeared successful and features of the responses in both countries could potentially be adopted by other jurisdictions to address future disease outbreaks and pandemic threats.

Development of a prognostic model of COVID-19 severity: a population-based cohort study in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: The severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection varies from asymptomatic state to severe respiratory failure and the clinical course is difficult to predict. The aim of the study was to develop a prognostic model to predict the severity of COVID-19 in unvaccinated adults at the time of diagnosis. METHODS: All SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in Iceland were prospectively enrolled into a telehealth service at diagnosis. A multivariable proportional-odds logistic regression model was derived from information obtained during the enrollment interview of those diagnosed between February 27 and December 31, 2020 who met the inclusion criteria. Outcomes were defined on an ordinal scale: (1) no need for escalation of care during follow-up; (2) need for urgent care visit; (3) hospitalization; and (4) admission to intensive care unit (ICU) or death. Missing data were multiply imputed using chained equations and the model was internally validated using bootstrapping techniques. Decision curve analysis was performed. RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from 4756 SARS-CoV-2-positive persons. In total, 375 (7.9%) only required urgent care visits, 188 (4.0%) were hospitalized and 50 (1.1%) were either admitted to ICU or died due to complications of COVID-19. The model included age, sex, body mass index (BMI), current smoking, underlying conditions, and symptoms and clinical severity score at enrollment. On internal validation, the optimism-corrected Nagelkerke's R2 was 23.4% (95%CI, 22.7-24.2), the C-statistic was 0.793 (95%CI, 0.789-0.797) and the calibration slope was 0.97 (95%CI, 0.96-0.98). Outcome-specific indices were for urgent care visit or worse (calibration intercept -0.04 [95%CI, -0.06 to -0.02], Emax 0.014 [95%CI, 0.008-0.020]), hospitalization or worse (calibration intercept -0.06 [95%CI, -0.12 to -0.03], Emax 0.018 [95%CI, 0.010-0.027]), and ICU admission or death (calibration intercept -0.10 [95%CI, -0.15 to -0.04] and Emax 0.027 [95%CI, 0.013-0.041]). CONCLUSION: Our prognostic model can accurately predict the later need for urgent outpatient evaluation, hospitalization, and ICU admission and death among unvaccinated SARS-CoV-2-positive adults in the general population at the time of diagnosis, using information obtained by telephone interview.

[Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and associated non-pharmaceutical interventions on diagnosis of myocardial infarction and selected infections in Iceland 2020].

INTRODUCTON: Nonpharmaceutical interventions to contain the spread of COVID-19 infections in Iceland in 2020 were successful, but the effects of these measures on incidence and diagnosis of other diseases is unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the diagnosis of myocardial infarction (MI) and selected infections with different transmission routes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Health records of individuals 18 years or older who were admitted to Landspitali University Hospital (LUH) in 2016-2020 with pneumonia or MI were extracted from the hospital registry. We acquired data from the clinical laboratories regarding diagnostic testing for Chlamydia trachomatis, influenza, HIV and blood cultures positive for Enterobacterales species. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for 2020 was calculated with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) and compared to 2016-2019. RESULTS: Discharge diagnoses due to pneumonia decreased by 31% in 2020, excluding COVID-19 pneumonia (SIR 0.69 (95%CI 0.64-0.75)). Discharge diagnoses of MI decreased by 18% (SIR 0.82 (95%CI 0.75-0.90)), and emergency cardiac catheterizations due to acute coronary syndrome by 23% (SIR 0.77 (95%CI 0.71-0.83)), while there was a 15% increase in blood stream infections for Enterobacterales species (SIR 1.15 (95%CI 1.04-1.28)). Testing for Chlamydia trachomatis decreased by 14.8% and positive tests decreased by 16.3%. Tests for HIV were reduced by 10.9%, while samples positive for influenza decreased by 23.6% despite doubling of tests being performed. CONCLUSION: The number of pneumonia cases of other causes than COVID-19 requiring admission dropped by a quarter in 2020. MI, chlamydia and influensa diagnoses decreased notably. These results likely reflect a true decrease, probably due to altered behaviour during the pandemic.

Obstructive sleep apnea is an independent risk factor for severe COVID-19: a population-based study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) has been proposed as a risk factor for severe COVID-19. Confounding is an important consideration as OSA is associated with several known risk factors for severe COVID-19. Our aim was to assess the association of OSA with hospitalization due to COVID-19 using a population-based cohort with detailed information on OSA and comorbidities. METHODS: Included were all community-dwelling Icelandic citizens 18 years of age and older diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2020. Data on demographics, comorbidities, and outcomes of COVID-19 was obtained from centralized national registries. Diagnosis of OSA was retrieved from the centralized Sleep Department Registry at Landspitali - The National University Hospital. Severe COVID-19 was defined as the composite outcome of hospitalization and death. The associations between OSA and the outcome were expressed as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), calculated using logistic regression models and inverse probability weighting. RESULTS: A total of 4,756 individuals diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection in Iceland were included in the study (1.3% of the Icelandic population), of whom 185 had a diagnosis of OSA. In total, 238 were hospitalized or died, 38 of whom had OSA. Adjusted for age, sex, and BMI, OSA was associated with poor outcome (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.4-3.5). This association was slightly attenuated (OR 2.0, 95% CI 2.0, 1.2-3.2) when adjusted for demographic characteristics and various comorbidities. CONCLUSIONS: OSA was associated with twofold increase in risk of severe COVID-19, and the association was not explained by obesity or other comorbidities.

COVID-19 and risk of subsequent life-threatening secondary infections: a matched cohort study in UK Biobank.

BACKGROUND: With the increasing number of people infected with and recovered from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the extent of major health consequences of COVID-19 is unclear, including risks of severe secondary infections. METHODS: Based on 445,845 UK Biobank participants registered in England, we conducted a matched cohort study where 5151 individuals with a positive test result or hospitalized with a diagnosis of COVID-19 were included in the exposed group. We then randomly selected up to 10 matched individuals without COVID-19 diagnosis for each exposed individual (n = 51,402). The life-threatening secondary infections were defined as diagnoses of severe secondary infections with high mortality rates (i.e., sepsis, endocarditis, and central nervous system infections) from the UK Biobank inpatient hospital data, or deaths from these infections from mortality data. The follow-up period was limited to 3 months after the initial COVID-19 diagnosis. Using a similar study design, we additionally constructed a matched cohort where exposed individuals were diagnosed with seasonal influenza from either inpatient hospital or primary care data between 2010 and 2019 (6169 exposed and 61,555 unexposed individuals). After controlling for multiple confounders, Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of life-threatening secondary infections after COVID-19 or seasonal influenza. RESULTS: In the matched cohort for COVID-19, 50.22% of participants were male, and the median age at the index date was 66 years. During a median follow-up of 12.71 weeks, the incidence rate of life-threatening secondary infections was 2.23 (123/55.15) and 0.25 (151/600.55) per 1000 person-weeks for all patients with COVID-19 and their matched individuals, respectively, which corresponded to a fully adjusted HR of 8.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.33-10.59). The corresponding HR of life-threatening secondary infections among all patients with seasonal influenza diagnosis was 4.50, 95% CI 3.34-6.08 (p for difference < 0.01). Also, elevated HRs were observed among hospitalized individuals for life-threatening secondary infections following hospital discharge, both in the COVID-19 (HR = 6.28 [95% CI 4.05-9.75]) and seasonal influenza (6.01 [95% CI 3.53-10.26], p for difference = 0.902) cohorts. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 patients have increased subsequent risks of life-threatening secondary infections, to an equal extent or beyond risk elevations observed for patients with seasonal influenza.

Clinical spectrum of coronavirus disease 2019 in Iceland: population based cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To characterise the symptoms of coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19). DESIGN: Population based cohort study. SETTING: Iceland. PARTICIPANTS: All individuals who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) between 17 March and 30 April 2020. Cases were identified by three testing strategies: targeted testing guided by clinical suspicion, open invitation population screening based on self referral, and random population screening. All identified cases were enrolled in a telehealth monitoring service, and symptoms were systematically monitored from diagnosis to recovery. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Occurrence of one or more of 19 predefined symptoms during follow-up. RESULTS: Among 1564 people positive for SARS-CoV-2, the most common presenting symptoms were myalgia (55%), headache (51%), and non-productive cough (49%). At the time of diagnosis, 83 (5.3%) individuals reported no symptoms, of whom 49 (59%) remained asymptomatic during follow-up. At diagnosis, 216 (14%) and 349 (22%) people did not meet the case definition of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the World Health Organization, respectively. Most (67%) of the SARS-CoV-2-positive patients had mild symptoms throughout the course of their disease. CONCLUSION: In the setting of broad access to RT-PCR testing, most SARS-CoV-2-positive people were found to have mild symptoms. Fever and dyspnoea were less common than previously reported. A substantial proportion of SARS-CoV-2-positive people did not meet recommended case definitions at the time of diagnosis.

Humoral Immune Response to SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the nature and durability of the humoral immune response to infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: We measured antibodies in serum samples from 30,576 persons in Iceland, using six assays (including two pan-immunoglobulin [pan-Ig] assays), and we determined that the appropriate measure of seropositivity was a positive result with both pan-Ig assays. We tested 2102 samples collected from 1237 persons up to 4 months after diagnosis by a quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay. We measured antibodies in 4222 quarantined persons who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and in 23,452 persons not known to have been exposed. RESULTS: Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive; antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays increased during 2 months after diagnosis by qPCR and remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study. Of quarantined persons, 2.3% were seropositive; of those with unknown exposure, 0.3% were positive. We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that the infection was fatal in 0.3%. We also estimate that 56% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR, 14% had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR (or who had not received a positive result, if tested), and 30% had occurred in persons outside quarantine and not tested with qPCR. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis. We estimate that the risk of death from infection was 0.3% and that 44% of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland were not diagnosed by qPCR.

[First case of COVID-19 treated with tocilizumab in Iceland]. / Fyrsta meðferð með tocilizumab við COVID-19 hérlendis - sjúkratilfelli

A gentleman in his early fifties became ill with flu-like symptoms after vacationing abroad and was diagnosed with COVID-19 after returning to Iceland. A few days later he was admitted to the University Hospital, Landspitali, due to worsening respiratory symptoms and severe fatigue. A computed tomography scan of lthe lungs showed diffuse bilateral consolidations and ground glass changes. He developed respiratory failure and was transferred to the intensive care unit where he received further treatment, including tocilizumab (IL-6 receptor inhibitor). He subsequently showed clinical improvement and did not require endotracheal intubation.